There Are Rules and Then There Are Truths

My mood is rather unpleasant today, so I'm not going to spend much time holding your hands.  That means I'm keeping things on the brief side of the ledger, mostly because I have casino windows to visit and a date with Doom.

Yeah, I said it: a date with Doom.  If you think 20 years of hardcore gambling is anything but doom staring at you in the face you're what we call in the biz, "a punk," the type of guy with a Franklin gift-wrapping fifty Washingtons. Meanwhile, this phone over here rings way too often, but I seldom answer it knowing everybody's into me for the latest tip.  Overall, it's been a dynamite season, so much so that the recession has been meaningless to me.  The economy shrunk, breasts are getting bigger and the road is littered with losers who just crapped out.  Some of them turn to prostitution for rent money, which is when you know you've hit rock bottom in the desert.

Sure, Vegas can be an ugly way to live, but it's given me everything in life including reasons to booze and bitch and fondle a variety of different things that could get you into trouble in the other 49 states.  And then I've learned a few things about gambling too.

1. When you hear an English accent tell you who's the favorite, run for the hills.  These daffy bastards would still think the world was flat unless somebody slipped them the memo from out of town.  That means they overrate their best teams and underrate the worst of them.  This is how you explain Spurs, Chelsea and Portsmouth.

2a. Bet against Manchester United when they're favored more than a goal in what is considered "the business end of the season" - nobody screws up a parlay consistently like Sir Alex Ferguson does when the spread is 1.5 or 2.5.  And he usually does it by half a goal a game in stoppage time - the fans jump around in awe-inspired wonder like Buffy's first crack at the Sybian.  But those of us with action go suicidal.  Can somebody call Declan Hill ... stat?  It smells worse than Big Sam near a whorehouse at low tide.

2b. Over the years I've made more cash on Wenger than any other manager in the EPL - because he's reliable for and against.  Like Yul Brenner said: It is written.

3. Underdogs in Serie A - also known as "Going to the Mattresses."  You'll never go broke watching Catania, Livorno, Chievo and Parma park the bus.

4. You want to make a few bucks consistently?  Bet the draw in Ligue 1.  They're such socialists in France that everybody gets a piece in the end.

5. This is what is called an "International Week of Football" - or the weekend following the week when seriously crappy football players have spent 90 minutes kicking really good players off the pitch in a meaningless game.  That means subbed at 60 minutes and lots of treatment tables in store for the teams with talent - another reason to go underdogs who had nobody on international duty, especially in La Liga (and if both teams had international appearances, always go with the home favorite).

6a. Check those injury reports for defenders and goalkeepers.  They become a set-piece festival when the backups enter Dodge City against the big guns drawn.

6b. Beware of the Law of Redknapp.  Managers who have tricked most of us into forgetting that they are nothing more than 3 month feel-good stories, but in reality are relegation specialists when you examine their careers.

7. Always know which teams are reliable losers AND reliable winners - toss out the rest. In future episodes we'll discuss this process in further detail and how they ruin your weekend faster than a cold sore.

Picks Of The Week

Palermo -1.0 over Livorno 

Arsenal -1.5 over Burnley

Valencia -1.0 over Racing Santander

Real Madrid -1.5 over Sevilla

Hamburg -1.0 over Hertha Berlin

Milan +0.5 over Roma

Cash Laid Out: $3,500.00 - because I roll like that.

Now that we have that out of the way, the rest of the season will be marked by some very important trends - epic failure, and sheer chaos, injuries to national team stars, managers of famous teams being talked down from the ledge - and these emerging realities: giant breast jobs, more losers for the window and the enormous fear that our extended little civilization is headed for the crapper.

Some of you will laugh at these concepts, but you don't need a crystal ball or a poison-tipped blow dart in the neck to suddenly find the Meaning of It All.  All you really need to do is read the Google Sponsored Search for quick financial fixes and the orgies of ads dedicated to tax and credit card settlements to know the score.

Life is already mean and dumb enough unless you've got greed as your habit, and I reckon you'll need to drive around town in an Armored Vehicle before long if you've got enough cash.  The crime rate is soon to skyrocket and violent muggings will become commonplace.

The parking facility at the MGM Grand will feel like Baghdad's Green Zone in 2005 once the temperature hits 95.  A top-line seat at the World Cup will fetch about five dollars and ninety-nine cents and you'll be able to purchase oral sex outside your local Stop and Go for a fifth of Jack.

Alrighty then, I warned you I was in a nasty mood today - this was supposed to be a cute little football gambling column given that it was me who came up with the Betting Edge.  So maybe I'll seem a lot nicer next week once reality sets in.  Time to hit the window looking for that little bit of fear and wonder and escaping The Doom at last.

Until then.  Ta!