Champions League Tuesday - Best Bets

Here’s a rock and a hard place for you. Two weeks ago, Arsenal lost 2-1 at FC Porto in the first leg of their Champions League last 16 tie. On the same night, Fiorentina lost 2-1 away to Bayern Munich. Two identical results, then, on the same night – yet going into Tuesday night’s second legs Arsenal are 1.85 (17/20) favorites to get past Porto while Fiorentina are a massive 3.50 (5/2) to knock out Bayern.

Can the bookies’ usual bias towards English sides – partly because of the weight of money English sides attract – wholly explain the price differential? In a word – yes. Arsenal’s superior European performance in comparison to Fiorentina in recent seasons may play a small part in the Gunners’ status as favorite, but it’s nowhere near enough to explain such a large difference in odds.

The better price on Fiorentina is why I back them to get through to the quarter-finals even though Bayern hold a 2-1 advantage. The Germans were lucky to win the first encounter, with most neutral observers feeling la Viola were worthy of at least a point.

The negative against the Italians is their mad dash to the crapper recently: they’ve lost seven of their last 10 matches in all competitions, which is why they’re in the bottom half of Serie A (11th). But they showed enough quality in that first leg at the Allianz-Arena to suggest they can cause an upset – or at the very least take Bayern to extra-time.

A better wager on the game, however, is over 2.5 goals. Thirteen of Fiorentina’s last 17 matches (76%) in all competitions have had over 2.5 goals in 90 minutes, with goals at both ends. Eleven of Bayern’s last 15 games (73%) in all competitions have had over 2.5 goals, too – so you’re getting value for money from a price of 1.9 (9/10) on over 2.5 goals.

In North London, Cesc Fabregas will be out because of a hamstring injury, making Arsenal’s task harder as they look to overturn a 2-1 first-leg deficit against the 2004 competition winners. Porto are usually tremendous in Europe and have played some good football in the first leg – although Fabianski should have been dumped in the North Sea on the way back from Portugal, just for being a putz.

Porto shows up in England and they run around like Edith Bunker in flames – they’ve conceded six without managing to score in two visits. Arsenal scores as reliably as George Clooney during a Vegas coke binge, although they may need three to get through the tie, as Porto certainly look good enough to find the target.

Over 2.5 goals is 1.83 (5/6) although both teams to score is potentially a better option at 1.85 (17/20). With the second bet, you cover the 1-1. So the only reason to back over 2.5 goals rather than both teams to score is if you feel a 3-0 Arsenal win is more likely than the 1-1 90-minute scoreline.

I’d place small stakes on Arsenal 2-1 and 3-1 winning scorelines, because I expect Wenger - Mr Reliable - to know that attack is their best form of defence. Split your stakes across those two scorelines at 9.00 (8/1) and 15.00 (14/1) respectively.

Recommended bets:
2pts Fiorentina v Bayern Munich over 2.5 goals @ 1.83 (5/6)
1pt Fiorentina to qualify v Bayern Munich @ 3.50 (5/2)
0.5pt Arsenal 2-1 winning scoreline v FC Porto @ 9.00 (8/1)
0.5pt Arsenal 3-1 winning scoreline v FC Porto @ 15.00 (14/1)

Be brave, this one looks rough ... more tomorrow later on the big games tomorrow!

Ta!