Champions League Wednesday - Best Bets

Real Madrid v Lyon 
Manchester Utd v AC Milan 

Lyon’s 1-0 home win over Real Madrid in the Champions League was one of the biggest shocks in the competition so far - but the price on the French side finishing the job off and getting through to the quarter-finals looks too big.

Lyon are 2.63 (13/8) outsiders against a Real side at 1.62 (8/13), even though Lyon go into the game on a nice run of results having defended superbly in the past month. Claude "The Fraud" Puel’s side are unbeaten in seven games - five wins and two draws – and haven’t conceded a goal in their last 620 minutes of competition.

That’s partly because of the brilliance of Hugo Lloris, easily the most admirable French specialist since Robert Clary starting digging tunnels in Hogan's Heroes, but it’s mostly because Cris and Boumsong are finally playing like they can stand the sight of each other for once. Right-back Reveillere is having his best season in years, while left-back Aly Cissokho's previous dental problems with Milan haven't kept him from chomping at the heels of Patrice Evra with the France National Team squad.  To go Caddyshack with you, for a moment: "The last time I saw a mouth like that it had a hook in it!"

The problem for Lyon is they’re staring down the barrel of a machine gun: Real Madrid have won 13 out of 13 at the Bernabeu in La Liga, extending that record when they came from 2-0 down to beat Sevilla 3-2 in a thriller on Saturday night - a thriller that should never have happened, mind you. A Lyon goal would leave Real Madrid needing to score three times, and that's a tall order against a side defending so well. That’s why I’m backing ... the Frenchies ... yes, the Frenchies ... to reach the last eight for the first time since 2006.  Casillas hasn't been Casillas in months - and on set pieces he looks as toothless as Leon Spinks.

Real Madrid players dominate the top of the anytime goalscorer market - Cristiano Ronaldo (1.91 or 10/11), Gonzalo Higuain (2.1 or 11/10), Raul (2.63 or 13/8) and Kaka (2.75 or 7/4) - but there are capable scorers in Lyon’s ranks, too. Lisandro Lopez is an Argentine Cantona look-alike with enough guts and addiction to ball materials - 18 goals in 34 appearances over the past five seasons - so he's the most appealing option at 4.5 (7/2).

The second Wednesday night match seems a foregone conclusion: Manchester United holds a 3-2 lead from the San Siro into the second leg v AC Milan at Old Trafford. Wayne Rooney was the difference in Italy thanks to Milan's defense pulling a Mexican standoff while the cross was entering scoring range, and he’s the player most likely to find the net in the second meeting. Given his current form, it’s surprising to find Rooney as big as 2.1 (11/10) to score, although doubts over his fitness may explain the price.  Jump on this early before the Asians overrun the counter like it's Free Wanton Day at Chairman Mao's.

There’s no value in betting on United to get through the tie (1.08 or 1/12) or win in 90 minutes (1.75 or 3.4), so goals offer better value. Both sides’ defending was shockingly criminal in the first leg, and Milan's style of play is likely to make the second leg an open encounter because they need to score at least twice to stand any chance of going through.  Not impossible, for those of you keeping score at home!  This is Ronaldinho's and Pato's last auditioning act for we-know-what, assuming both are fit and/or are willing to take the needle for the cause.

Over 2.5 goals is worth considering at 1.91 (10/11), while both teams to score is 1.80 (4.5). But by far the best bet is the second-half having more than 1.5 goals. As time runs out, Milan will become more desperate to get back into the game and throw caution to the wind. I expect spaces to open up at both ends of the pitch, creating more and more scoring chances (otherwise known as chances to show Capello why Rio is now dust). The price of 2.00 (evens) on the game having two goals after half-time is too good to miss.

Recommended bets:
2pts Manchester Utd v AC Milan second-half over 1.5 goals @ 2.00 (evens)
1.5pt Lyon to qualify v Real Madrid @ 2.63 (13/8)
1pt Lisandro Lopez (Lyon) to score anytime at Real Madrid @ 4.5 (7/2)

The faint-hearted need not apply.  This ain't no party, this ain't no disco ... you know the drill!

A fun little shout out to my growing list of friends and fans across the pond in Anglo-land: Bent and Dafoe upfront and Rooney in the hole.  Dump Fat Frank Lampard and you've got something of a chance.  I wouldn't let one of those Chelsea choke artists touch my electrified fence.

Ta!